KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
74-75 | Road
10
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
89-60 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Luinder Avila
#58 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Mayza
#37 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luinder Avila | None-None | 1.08 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Tim Mayza | None-None | 3.95 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.08 Ldr
ERA
3.95
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 0.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
40%
PHILLIES
60%
ROYALS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.3 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -3.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
KC By 1-2 runs
9.7%
KC By 3-4 runs
4.8%
PHI By 1-2 runs
17.8%
PHI By 3-4 runs
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
3.02
KANSAS CITY
Philadelphia
6.34
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.3
C
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 6, 2026
PHI @ KC
1 - 15
Jul 5, 2026
PHI @ KC
2 - 5
Jul 4, 2026
PHI @ KC
6 - 1
Sep 14, 2025
KC @ PHI
10 - 3
Sep 13, 2025
KC @ PHI
6 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.26
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.718
OPS
▲
.724
170
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+89.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.8
vs
Kansas City: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+71.1% more
Philadelphia: 20.8
vs
Kansas City: 12.1
Hits (L5)
+60.1% more
Philadelphia: 12.1
vs
Kansas City: 7.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+10.4% more
Philadelphia: 8.2
vs
Kansas City: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
3.0
10
PHI Score
6.3
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
12.1 / 7.6
5.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 0.9
3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 7.4
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
20.8 / 12.1
14.0 / 26.0
Walks
2.0 / 3.4
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
KC
PHI
KC
ML
59%
97-67
55%
89-72
49%
80-84
56%
90-70
ATS
65%
107-57
57%
91-70
51%
83-81
58%
93-67
TTL
57%
88-67-9
58%
90-64-7
51%
78-76-9
54%
83-70-7
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