Home / MLB Projections MLB / White Sox @ Guardians CHW @ CLE

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

57-92  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Sep 14 • 1:40 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

77-71  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Chase Meidroth
STARTING PITCHER

Chase Meidroth

#10 | Second Base
@
Cade Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Smith

#36 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Chase Meidroth None-None -- -- -- --
Cade Smith None-None 3.06 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.06
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
36%
📊
GUARDIANS
64%
WHITE SOX --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Cleveland)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

31.9%

Guardians Cover

68.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CHW By 1-2 runs

13.9%

CHW By 3-4 runs

8.1%

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CLE By 3-4 runs

18.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.65
CHICAGO
5.53
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guardians Win
64% Win Prob
C
Sim Guardians Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Guardians (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim Guardians (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 8, 2026 CLE @ CHW 9 - 5
Oct 7, 2026 CLE @ CHW 9 - 3
Oct 5, 2026 CHW @ CLE 4 - 3
Oct 3, 2026 CHW @ CLE 3 - 0
Sep 16, 2026 CHW @ CLE 3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Cleveland CLE
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.826 ▲
OPS
.696
1
Home Runs
▲ 162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +16100.0% more
Cleveland: 162.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +116.0% more
Cleveland: 1.5 vs Chicago: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +40.3% more
Cleveland: 12.3 vs Chicago: 8.7
Strikeouts (L5) +32.1% more
Cleveland: 8.8 vs Chicago: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 3.7 2
CLE Score 5.5 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.6 / 6.5 6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 6.7 11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.3 / 8.7 11.0 / 9.0
Walks 1.4 / 2.3 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-80-0 (52.4%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
CLE
87-79-0 (52.4%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(57.7%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
97-69-2
O: 58.4% / U: 41.6% Total +/-: +1.0
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
CHW
CLE
CHW
ML
54% 87-75
48% 81-87
49% 80-83
56% 94-74
ATS
57% 93-69
59% 99-69
58% 95-68
55% 93-75
TTL
56% 89-71-2
58% 97-69-2
44% 70-90-2
51% 85-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
cbssports 0 minutes ago
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
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White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
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yardbarker 0 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 3 hours, 58 minutes ago