Home / MLB Projections MLB / Diamondbacks @ Twins ARI @ MIN

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

74-75  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Sep 14 • 2:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

65-83  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Thompson

#81 | Relief Pitcher
@
Bailey Ober
STARTING PITCHER

Bailey Ober

#17 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Thompson None-None 4.14 -- 0.2 1
Bailey Ober None-None 5.12 -- 6.0 9
None-None W-L None-None
4.14 Ldr ERA 5.12
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
56%
📊
TWINS
44%
DIAMONDBACKS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Minnesota)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

46.3%

Twins Cover

53.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

ARI By 1-2 runs

17.7%

ARI By 3-4 runs

12.5%

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.0%

MIN By 3-4 runs

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.46
ARIZONA
4.83
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
3
ARIZONA
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Twins Loss
44% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Twins (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
B
Sim Twins (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 21, 2026 MIN @ ARI 4 - 2
Jun 20, 2026 MIN @ ARI 16 - 8
Jun 19, 2026 MIN @ ARI 5 - 9
Sep 14, 2025 ARI @ MIN 6 - 4
Sep 13, 2025 ARI @ MIN 5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
4.56
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.720
OPS
.720
166
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +64.0% more
Minnesota: 0.9 vs Arizona: 0.2
Home Runs (L5) +27.5% more
Minnesota: 1.4 vs Arizona: 1.1
Strikeouts (L5) +22.8% more
Minnesota: 8.6 vs Arizona: 7.0
Walks (L5) +16.2% more
Minnesota: 4.0 vs Arizona: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 4.5 6
MIN Score 4.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.2 0.0 / 3.0
Hits 9.5 / 9.2 7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.1 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 7.0 13.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.5 / 14.2 13.0 / 16.0
Walks 4.0 / 3.5 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
ARI
MIN
ARI
ML
52% 84-78
54% 87-74
50% 80-81
54% 86-74
ATS
59% 95-67
57% 91-70
59% 95-66
56% 89-71
TTL
51% 78-75-9
52% 80-73-8
53% 80-72-9
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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