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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

73-75  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Sep 14 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

84-64  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Chandler Simpson
STARTING PITCHER

Chandler Simpson

#14 | Left Field
@
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Chandler Simpson None-None -- -- -- --
Caleb Thielbar None-None 1.98 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 1.98
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
43%
📊
CUBS
57%
RAYS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 56%
Under 0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Tampa Bay)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

51.2%

Cubs Cover

48.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-2 runs

18.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

13.9%

CHC By 1-2 runs

18.2%

CHC By 3-4 runs

13.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.56
TAMPA BAY
4.44
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
TAMPA BAY
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rays Loss
43% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rays (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 8, 2026 CHC @ TB 6 - 2
Apr 7, 2026 CHC @ TB 9 - 2
Apr 6, 2026 CHC @ TB 4 - 6
Sep 14, 2025 TB @ CHC 3 - 4
Sep 13, 2025 TB @ CHC 5 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.728 ▲
OPS
.374
169 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +89.0% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5) +69.2% more
Tampa Bay: 4.3 vs Chicago: 1.3
OPS (Season) +35.4%
Tampa Bay: 72.8% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 4.6 3
CHC Score 4.4 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 9.2 10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.5 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 10.1 13.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 14.4 / 15.7 15.0 / 16.0
Walks 1.3 / 4.3 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
TB
CHC
TB
ML
58% 93-68
58% 95-68
51% 82-79
58% 95-68
ATS
61% 97-63-1
60% 97-66
47% 75-85-1
55% 90-73
TTL
52% 81-74-6
47% 73-81-9
46% 72-83-6
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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