NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
83-65 | Road
4
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
81-68 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Blackburn
#58 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Blackburn | None-None | 6.88 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.26 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.88
ERA
Ldr 1.26
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
52%
RED SOX
48%
YANKEES
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
59%
Under 0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.1%
NYY By 3-4 runs
14.9%
BOS By 1-2 runs
17.5%
BOS By 3-4 runs
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.31
NEW YORK
Boston
4.84
BOSTON
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Boston
6
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Yankees (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Boston
BOS
1
Games Played
▲
2
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
1.041
▲
OPS
.409
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+88.9% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+63.2%
New York: 1.0%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+34.4%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Boston: 25.0%
Errors (L5)
+33.3% more
New York: 1.1
vs
Boston: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
5.3
4
BOS Score
4.8
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.9 / 9.2
12.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.4
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 9.1
16.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 15.1
18.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.4
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
NYY
BOS
NYY
ML
50%
80-80
47%
76-85
47%
76-87
52%
85-77
ATS
58%
93-67
59%
95-66
48%
79-84
53%
86-76
TTL
46%
72-83-5
53%
81-73-7
47%
74-83-6
53%
82-72-7
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