TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
72-75 | Road
5
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
84-63 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 3.61 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 2.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.61
ERA
Ldr 2.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
42%
CUBS
58%
RAYS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
18.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
13.9%
CHC By 1-2 runs
18.2%
CHC By 3-4 runs
13.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4.54
TAMPA BAY
Chicago
4.41
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Win
42% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim
Cubs (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 8, 2026
CHC @ TB
6 - 2
Apr 7, 2026
CHC @ TB
9 - 2
Apr 6, 2026
CHC @ TB
4 - 6
Sep 14, 2025
TB @ CHC
3 - 4
Sep 13, 2025
TB @ CHC
5 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.728
▲
OPS
.374
169
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+89.0% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+62.3% more
Tampa Bay: 3.9
vs
Chicago: 1.5
Errors (L5)
+41.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.6
vs
Chicago: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.5
5
CHC Score
4.4
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.3 / 6.8
6.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.3
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.8 / 10.7
8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.6 / 11.1
14.0 / 25.0
Walks
1.5 / 3.9
1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
TB
CHC
TB
ML
58%
93-68
58%
95-68
51%
82-79
58%
95-68
ATS
61%
97-63-1
60%
97-66
47%
75-85-1
55%
90-73
TTL
52%
81-74-6
47%
73-81-9
46%
72-83-6
51%
78-75-10
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