Home / MLB Projections MLB / Pirates @ Nationals PIT @ WSH

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

64-84  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 4:05 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

61-86  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Carmen Mlodzinski
STARTING PITCHER

Carmen Mlodzinski

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Clayton Beeter
STARTING PITCHER

Clayton Beeter

#39 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Carmen Mlodzinski None-None 3.86 -- 2.0 3
Clayton Beeter None-None 4.22 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.86 Ldr ERA 4.22
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
52%
📊
NATIONALS
48%
PIRATES --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Pittsburgh)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

58.1%

Nationals Cover

41.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1-2 runs

19.5%

PIT By 3-4 runs

15.8%

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.7%

WSH By 3-4 runs

11.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.64
PITTSBURGH
3.82
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
PITTSBURGH
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pirates Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pirates (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
C
Sim Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 5, 2026 PIT @ WSH 11 - 5
Jul 4, 2026 PIT @ WSH 7 - 1
Jul 3, 2026 PIT @ WSH 5 - 9
Apr 16, 2026 WSH @ PIT 8 - 7
Apr 15, 2026 WSH @ PIT 0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.73
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.734
OPS
▲ .744
186
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +24.7% more
Pittsburgh: 4.0 vs Washington: 3.0
Strikeouts (L5) +19.2% more
Pittsburgh: 8.8 vs Washington: 7.1
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.9%
Pittsburgh: 33.0% vs Washington: 32.1%
Batting Avg (Season) +0.7%
Pittsburgh: 25.3% vs Washington: 24.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 4.6 5
WSH Score 3.8 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.3 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.9 / 7.3 3.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 8.8 7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 14.8 / 11.7 3.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.0 / 4.0 6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PIT
WSH
PIT
ML
57% 92-69
52% 82-77
54% 87-74
52% 85-78
ATS
58% 93-68
54% 86-73
57% 91-70
50% 81-82
TTL
50% 77-78-6
47% 72-81-6
42% 65-90-6
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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