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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

78-70  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 4:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

76-72  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Cole Winn
STARTING PITCHER

Cole Winn

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Francisco Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Francisco Alvarez

#4 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cole Winn None-None 1.30 -- 0.2 2
Francisco Alvarez None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
1.30 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) --
2 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
51%
📊
METS
49%
RANGERS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RangersTEX (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

49.6%

Mets Cover

50.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

TEX By 1-2 runs

18.4%

TEX By 3-4 runs

13.5%

NYM By 1-2 runs

18.5%

NYM By 3-4 runs

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
5.63
TEXAS
5.67
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
TEXAS
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: 0.0
A
Sim Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 NYM @ TEX 1 - 3
Sep 23, 2026 NYM @ TEX 7 - 2
Sep 22, 2026 NYM @ TEX 6 - 3
Sep 14, 2025 TEX @ NYM 2 - 5
Sep 13, 2025 TEX @ NYM 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.242 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.713 ▲
OPS
.705
183
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +233.3% more
New York: 3.8 vs Texas: 1.1
Errors (L5) +49.0% more
New York: 0.7 vs Texas: 0.2
Home Runs (Season) +11.5% more
New York: 204.0 vs Texas: 183.0
Runs per Game (Season) +3.9% more
New York: 4.3 vs Texas: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 5.6 3
NYM Score 5.7 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.2 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 6.2 / 7.9 11.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 7.0 6.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 9.9 / 13.4 14.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.8 / 1.1 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
TEX
NYM
TEX
ML
50% 79-80
53% 86-76
48% 76-83
57% 91-70
ATS
58% 93-66
57% 92-70
49% 78-81
61% 98-63
TTL
55% 80-66-13
53% 78-70-14
51% 74-72-13
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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