NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
82-65 | Road
5
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
81-67 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bednar | None-None | 2.38 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.28 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.38
ERA
Ldr 1.28
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
51%
RED SOX
49%
YANKEES
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
NYY By 1-2 runs
17.9%
NYY By 3-4 runs
12.7%
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.9%
BOS By 3-4 runs
14.4%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.14
NEW YORK
Boston
5.43
BOSTON
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Boston
BOS
1
Games Played
▲
2
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
1.041
▲
OPS
.409
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+88.9% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+63.2%
New York: 1.0%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Home Runs (L5)
+44.3% more
New York: 1.6
vs
Boston: 0.9
Slugging Pct (Season)
+34.4%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Boston: 25.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
5.1
5
BOS Score
5.4
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 1.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.9 / 8.8
10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.6
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 8.6
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 14.6
17.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.8 / 4.0
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
NYY
BOS
NYY
ML
50%
80-80
47%
76-85
47%
76-87
52%
85-77
ATS
58%
93-67
59%
95-66
48%
79-84
53%
86-76
TTL
46%
72-83-5
53%
81-73-7
47%
74-83-6
53%
82-72-7
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