ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
73-75 | Road
5
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
65-82 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Thompson
#81 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kody Funderburk
#57 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Thompson | None-None | 4.21 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Kody Funderburk | None-None | 4.28 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.21 Ldr
ERA
4.28
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
55%
TWINS
45%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
ARI By 1-2 runs
16.2%
ARI By 3-4 runs
10.5%
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIN By 3-4 runs
16.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4.16
ARIZONA
Minnesota
5.19
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Twins
Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim
Twins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
MIN @ ARI
4 - 2
Jun 20, 2026
MIN @ ARI
16 - 8
Jun 19, 2026
MIN @ ARI
5 - 9
Sep 14, 2025
ARI @ MIN
6 - 4
Sep 13, 2025
ARI @ MIN
5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
4.56
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.720
OPS
.720
166
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+96.0% more
Minnesota: 1.3
vs
Arizona: 0.3
Home Runs (L5)
+82.5% more
Minnesota: 2.1
vs
Arizona: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+24.0% more
Minnesota: 17.7
vs
Arizona: 14.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+15.0% more
Minnesota: 6.9
vs
Arizona: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.2
5
MIN Score
5.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 9.3
10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.1
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 6.0
12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
17.7 / 14.3
11.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.2
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
ARI
MIN
ARI
ML
52%
84-78
54%
87-74
50%
80-81
54%
86-74
ATS
59%
95-67
57%
91-70
59%
95-66
56%
89-71
TTL
51%
78-75-9
52%
80-73-8
53%
80-72-9
49%
73-77-9
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