HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
80-68 | Road
6
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
65-82 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan King
#74 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Dodd
#46 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan King | None-None | 2.60 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
| Dylan Dodd | None-None | 3.38 | -- | 3.2 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.60 Ldr
ERA
3.38
--
WHIP
--
1.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
60%
BRAVES
40%
ASTROS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
17.4%
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4.5
HOUSTON
Atlanta
3.01
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Win
60% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
B
Sim
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
ATL @ HOU
4 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
ATL @ HOU
6 - 3
Sep 18, 2026
ATL @ HOU
6 - 2
Sep 14, 2025
HOU @ ATL
3 - 8
Sep 13, 2025
HOU @ ATL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.582
OPS
▲
.757
4
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+31.8% more
Houston: 8.7
vs
Atlanta: 5.9
Total Bases (L5)
+23.2% more
Houston: 13.4
vs
Atlanta: 10.3
Home Runs (L5)
+16.0% more
Houston: 1.3
vs
Atlanta: 1.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+66.7% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.5
6
ATL Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.9 / 8.7
6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.3
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.2 / 6.6
11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
10.3 / 13.4
10.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.4 / 2.4
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
HOU
ATL
HOU
ML
46%
77-90
50%
81-82
54%
90-78
47%
77-87
ATS
57%
96-71
56%
91-72
52%
87-81
55%
90-74
TTL
53%
83-73-11
45%
70-84-9
49%
76-80-11
45%
69-86-9
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
Yankees' Season Ends in Sweep as Boone Faces Fan Fury Over 'Brok…