Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Padres COL @ SD

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

41-107  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 8:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

80-68  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Karros
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Karros

#12 | Third Base
@
Yuki Matsui
STARTING PITCHER

Yuki Matsui

#1 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Karros None-None -- -- -- --
Yuki Matsui None-None 4.24 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 4.24
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
25%
📊
PADRES
75%
ROCKIES --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (San Diego)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

38.7%

Padres Cover

61.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

COL By 1-2 runs

15.9%

COL By 3-4 runs

10.2%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

16.7%

AI Model Projected Score
2.86
COLORADO
4.01
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
8
COLORADO
6
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Win
75% Win Prob
B
Sim Rockies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim Rockies (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 14.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 2
Sep 16, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 3
Sep 15, 2026 SD @ COL 3 - 9
Sep 14, 2026 SD @ COL 8 - 7
Jul 29, 2026 COL @ SD 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.64
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.254
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.739
OPS
▲ .925
180 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +29.3% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Colorado: 4.6
Strikeouts (L5) +28.4% more
San Diego: 11.2 vs Colorado: 8.7
Errors (L5) +25.0% more
San Diego: 0.6 vs Colorado: 0.3
OPS (Season) +18.6%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Colorado: 73.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 2.9 3
SD Score 4.0 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.1 / 6.0 12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.9 4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 11.2 / 8.7 10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 10.3 / 9.3 25.0 / 11.0
Walks 1.8 / 2.5 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
2%MONEY98%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
COL
SD
COL
ML
51% 85-83
60% 97-64
51% 85-82
55% 88-73
ATS
54% 91-77
60% 97-64
55% 92-75
52% 83-78
TTL
51% 82-80-6
60% 93-62-6
54% 86-74-6
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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