Home / MLB Projections MLB / Reds @ Athletics CIN @ ATH

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

74-73  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 10:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

68-80  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Hunter Greene
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Greene

#21 | SP
@
Hogan Harris
STARTING PITCHER

Hogan Harris

#36 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Hunter Greene None-None 3.01 -- 2.1 3
Hogan Harris None-None 3.34 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.01 Ldr ERA 3.34
-- WHIP --
2.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
54%
📊
ATHLETICS
46%
REDS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 69%
Under 0 31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Athletics)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

28.1%

Athletics Cover

71.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

CIN By 1-2 runs

12.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

7.0%

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.3%

ATH By 3-4 runs

18.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3.14
CINCINNATI
5.46
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
CINCINNATI
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.3
B
Sim Athletics (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.6
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 ATH @ CIN 5 - 6
Aug 5, 2026 ATH @ CIN 2 - 3
Aug 4, 2026 ATH @ CIN 4 - 5
Sep 14, 2025 CIN @ ATH 4 - 7
Sep 13, 2025 CIN @ ATH 5 - 11
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.699
OPS
▲ .719
213 ▲
Home Runs
194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +104.0% more
Athletics: 1.9 vs Cincinnati: 0.8
Walks (L5) +81.7% more
Athletics: 3.6 vs Cincinnati: 2.0
Total Bases (L5) +56.4% more
Athletics: 15.7 vs Cincinnati: 10.0
Strikeouts (L5) +42.9% more
Athletics: 10.3 vs Cincinnati: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 3.1 5
ATH Score 5.5 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 6.4 12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 0.8 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.3 / 7.2 3.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.7 / 10.0 24.0 / 14.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.0 4.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
CIN
ATH
CIN
ML
59% 95-67
55% 88-71
54% 87-74
49% 79-81
ATS
52% 84-78
54% 86-73
50% 81-80
50% 80-80
TTL
54% 84-73-5
53% 81-73-5
42% 66-90-5
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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