PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
64-83 | Road
5
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
60-86 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Clayton Beeter
#39 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 4.13 | -- | 5.1 | 4 |
| Clayton Beeter | None-None | 4.43 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.13 Ldr
ERA
4.43
--
WHIP
--
5.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
52%
NATIONALS
48%
PIRATES
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PIT By 3-4 runs
17.1%
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.4%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4.81
PITTSBURGH
Washington
3.46
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pirates
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pirates (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.3
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 5, 2026
PIT @ WSH
11 - 5
Jul 4, 2026
PIT @ WSH
7 - 1
Jul 3, 2026
PIT @ WSH
5 - 9
Apr 16, 2026
WSH @ PIT
8 - 7
Apr 15, 2026
WSH @ PIT
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.734
OPS
▲
.744
186
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+36.4% more
Pittsburgh: 9.7
vs
Washington: 6.2
Walks (L5)
+10.6% more
Pittsburgh: 4.4
vs
Washington: 4.0
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.9%
Pittsburgh: 33.0%
vs
Washington: 32.1%
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.7%
Pittsburgh: 25.3%
vs
Washington: 24.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.8
5
WSH Score
3.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.4 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.4 / 6.0
8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.8
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.2 / 9.7
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.2 / 10.0
16.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.0 / 4.4
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PIT
WSH
PIT
ML
57%
92-69
52%
82-77
54%
87-74
52%
85-78
ATS
58%
93-68
54%
86-73
57%
91-70
50%
81-82
TTL
50%
77-78-6
47%
72-81-6
42%
65-90-6
50%
79-78-6
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