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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

74-73  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Sep 12 • 6:45 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

87-60  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Luinder Avila
STARTING PITCHER

Luinder Avila

#58 | SP
@
Orion Kerkering
STARTING PITCHER

Orion Kerkering

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Luinder Avila None-None 1.13 -- 1.0 1
Orion Kerkering None-None 2.96 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.13 Ldr ERA 2.96
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
41%
📊
PHILLIES
59%
ROYALS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 39%
Under 0 61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Philadelphia)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

22.4%

Phillies Cover

77.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

KC By 1-2 runs

10.5%

KC By 3-4 runs

5.4%

PHI By 1-2 runs

18.4%

PHI By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.2
KANSAS CITY
6.23
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phillies Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Phillies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 6, 2026 PHI @ KC 1 - 15
Jul 5, 2026 PHI @ KC 2 - 5
Jul 4, 2026 PHI @ KC 6 - 1
Sep 14, 2025 KC @ PHI 10 - 3
Sep 13, 2025 KC @ PHI 6 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.718
OPS
▲ .724
170 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +112.6% more
Philadelphia: 18.7 vs Kansas City: 8.8
Home Runs (L5) +99.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.5 vs Kansas City: 0.5
Hits (L5) +86.7% more
Philadelphia: 11.2 vs Kansas City: 6.0
Strikeouts (L5) +52.7% more
Philadelphia: 10.9 vs Kansas City: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.2 2
PHI Score 6.2 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.2 / 6.0 14.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 0.5 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.9 / 7.1 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 18.7 / 8.8 26.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.1 / 2.7 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
KC
PHI
KC
ML
59% 97-67
55% 89-72
49% 80-84
56% 90-70
ATS
65% 107-57
57% 91-70
51% 83-81
58% 93-67
TTL
57% 88-67-9
58% 90-64-7
51% 78-76-9
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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