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NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

81-65  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Sep 12 • 7:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

81-66  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
David Bednar
STARTING PITCHER

David Bednar

#53 | Relief Pitcher
@
Ceddanne Rafaela
STARTING PITCHER

Ceddanne Rafaela

#3 | Center Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
David Bednar None-None 2.43 -- 1.0 2
Ceddanne Rafaela None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.43 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
2 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
50%
📊
RED SOX
50%
YANKEES --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Boston)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

39.0%

Red Sox Cover

61.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

NYY By 1-2 runs

16.0%

NYY By 3-4 runs

10.3%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.88
NEW YORK
6
BOSTON
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
C
Sim Red Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 BOS @ NYY 2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026 BOS @ NYY 0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026 BOS @ NYY 1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026 BOS @ NYY 6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026 BOS @ NYY 0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Boston BOS
1
Games Played
▲ 2
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
1.041 ▲
OPS
.409
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +19.8% more
Boston: 9.5 vs New York: 7.9
Runs per Game (Season) +88.9% more
New York: 9.0 vs Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season) +63.2%
New York: 1.0% vs Boston: 40.9%
Errors (L5) +57.0% more
New York: 0.7 vs Boston: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 4.9 4
BOS Score 6.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.7 3.0 / 2.0
Hits 9.3 / 8.7 2.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 7.9 8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 15.5 5.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.1 / 3.6 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
NYY
BOS
NYY
ML
50% 80-80
47% 76-85
47% 76-87
52% 85-77
ATS
58% 93-67
59% 95-66
48% 79-84
53% 86-76
TTL
46% 72-83-5
53% 81-73-7
47% 74-83-6
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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