TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
77-70 | Road
8
NEW YORK
METSNYM
76-71 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob deGrom
#48 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Francisco Alvarez
#4 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | None-None | 2.82 | -- | 7.0 | 2 |
| Francisco Alvarez | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.82
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
7.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
2
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
51%
METS
49%
RANGERS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
TEX By 1-2 runs
16.9%
TEX By 3-4 runs
11.4%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.4%
NYM By 3-4 runs
15.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
5.19
TEXAS
New York
5.94
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
B
Sim
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.1
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
NYM @ TEX
1 - 3
Sep 23, 2026
NYM @ TEX
7 - 2
Sep 22, 2026
NYM @ TEX
6 - 3
Sep 14, 2025
TEX @ NYM
2 - 5
Sep 13, 2025
TEX @ NYM
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.713
▲
OPS
.705
183
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+86.0% more
New York: 3.2
vs
Texas: 1.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.8% more
New York: 9.7
vs
Texas: 8.0
Home Runs (Season)
+11.5% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Texas: 183.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.9% more
New York: 4.3
vs
Texas: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
5.2
8
NYM Score
5.9
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.3
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 6.4
5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.3
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 8.0
3.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
10.3 / 11.7
9.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.2 / 1.7
5.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
TEX
NYM
TEX
ML
50%
79-80
53%
86-76
48%
76-83
57%
91-70
ATS
58%
93-66
57%
92-70
49%
78-81
61%
98-63
TTL
55%
80-66-13
53%
78-70-14
51%
74-72-13
55%
81-66-14
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