HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
79-68 | Road
11
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
65-81 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
AJ Blubaugh
#69 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Hurston Waldrep
#64 | Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Blubaugh | None-None | 2.45 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Hurston Waldrep | None-None | 2.78 | -- | 4.2 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.45 Ldr
ERA
2.78
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
59%
BRAVES
41%
ASTROS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.4%
HOU By 3-4 runs
15.7%
ATL By 1-2 runs
16.9%
ATL By 3-4 runs
11.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
3.99
HOUSTON
Atlanta
3.22
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
C
Sim
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.2
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
ATL @ HOU
4 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
ATL @ HOU
6 - 3
Sep 18, 2026
ATL @ HOU
6 - 2
Sep 14, 2025
HOU @ ATL
3 - 8
Sep 13, 2025
HOU @ ATL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.582
OPS
▲
.757
4
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+29.0% more
Houston: 0.9
vs
Atlanta: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+66.7% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Houston: 3.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+45.1% more
Atlanta: 10.8
vs
Houston: 7.4
Walks (L5)
+41.0% more
Atlanta: 3.6
vs
Houston: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.0
11
ATL Score
3.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.4 / 6.5
5.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.9
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.8 / 7.4
9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
9.9 / 10.6
11.0 / 19.0
Walks
3.6 / 2.6
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
HOU
ATL
HOU
ML
46%
77-90
50%
81-82
54%
90-78
47%
77-87
ATS
57%
96-71
56%
91-72
52%
87-81
55%
90-74
TTL
53%
83-73-11
45%
70-84-9
49%
76-80-11
45%
69-86-9
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