ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
73-74 | Road
8
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
64-82 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandyn Garcia
#55 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Travis Adams
#45 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandyn Garcia | None-None | 6.75 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Travis Adams | None-None | 7.71 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.75 Ldr
ERA
7.71
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
56%
TWINS
44%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
ARI By 1-2 runs
12.5%
ARI By 3-4 runs
6.9%
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
19.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
3.24
ARIZONA
Minnesota
5.62
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Minnesota
6
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Twins
Win
44% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.4
D
Sim
Twins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
MIN @ ARI
4 - 2
Jun 20, 2026
MIN @ ARI
16 - 8
Jun 19, 2026
MIN @ ARI
5 - 9
Sep 14, 2025
ARI @ MIN
6 - 4
Sep 13, 2025
ARI @ MIN
5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
4.56
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.720
OPS
.720
166
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+92.0% more
Minnesota: 1.6
vs
Arizona: 0.7
Errors (L5)
+45.0% more
Minnesota: 0.9
vs
Arizona: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+18.1% more
Minnesota: 3.3
vs
Arizona: 2.8
Total Bases (L5)
+17.3% more
Minnesota: 14.5
vs
Arizona: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
3.2
8
MIN Score
5.6
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.5
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 8.9
12.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.7
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 6.5
6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 12.4
24.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.3 / 2.8
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
ARI
MIN
ARI
ML
52%
84-78
54%
87-74
50%
80-81
54%
86-74
ATS
59%
95-67
57%
91-70
59%
95-66
56%
89-71
TTL
51%
78-75-9
52%
80-73-8
53%
80-72-9
49%
73-77-9
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