CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
74-72 | Road
0
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
67-80 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Burns
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Hogan Harris
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Burns | None-None | 5.20 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Hogan Harris | None-None | 3.40 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.20
ERA
Ldr 3.40
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
55%
ATHLETICS
45%
REDS
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CIN By 3-4 runs
18.2%
ATH By 1-2 runs
13.9%
ATH By 3-4 runs
8.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
5.37
CINCINNATI
Athletics
3.49
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Athletics
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Athletics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
B
Sim
Athletics (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.9
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
ATH @ CIN
5 - 6
Aug 5, 2026
ATH @ CIN
2 - 3
Aug 4, 2026
ATH @ CIN
4 - 5
Sep 14, 2025
CIN @ ATH
4 - 7
Sep 13, 2025
CIN @ ATH
5 - 11
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.699
OPS
▲
.719
213
▲
Home Runs
194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+8.9% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Athletics: 194.0
Hits (L5)
+48.4% more
Athletics: 9.8
vs
Cincinnati: 6.6
Total Bases (L5)
+45.2% more
Athletics: 16.0
vs
Cincinnati: 11.0
Walks (L5)
+17.1% more
Athletics: 2.9
vs
Cincinnati: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
5.4
0
ATH Score
3.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.8 / 6.6
6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.2
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 8.3
14.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
16.0 / 11.0
15.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.5
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
Advantage
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
CIN
ATH
CIN
ML
59%
95-67
55%
88-71
54%
87-74
49%
79-81
ATS
52%
84-78
54%
86-73
50%
81-80
50%
80-80
TTL
54%
84-73-5
53%
81-73-5
42%
66-90-5
54%
83-72-5
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