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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

72-73  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, Sep 11 • 2:10 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

56-90  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Ian Seymour
STARTING PITCHER

Ian Seymour

#61 | Starting Pitcher
@
Miguel Vargas
STARTING PITCHER

Miguel Vargas

#20 | Third Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ian Seymour None-None 2.95 -- 5.1 5
Miguel Vargas None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.95 ERA --
-- WHIP --
5.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
5 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
61%
📊
WHITE SOX
39%
RAYS --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Tampa Bay)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

53.1%

White Sox Cover

46.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-2 runs

18.9%

TB By 3-4 runs

14.5%

CHW By 1-2 runs

17.9%

CHW By 3-4 runs

12.7%

AI Model Projected Score
5.05
TAMPA BAY
4.74
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
TAMPA BAY
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rays Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim White Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rays (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim White Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.8
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 CHW @ TB 9 - 1
Aug 1, 2026 CHW @ TB 0 - 1
Jul 31, 2026 CHW @ TB 6 - 1
Apr 16, 2026 TB @ CHW 5 - 3
Apr 15, 2026 TB @ CHW 8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.54
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.728
OPS
▲ .826
169 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.4% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +47.6% more
Tampa Bay: 2.1 vs Chicago: 1.1
Errors (L5) +26.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.8 vs Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5) +44.4% more
Chicago: 4.3 vs Tampa Bay: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 5.1 1
CHW Score 4.7 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.3 / 8.0 6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 2.1 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.5 / 11.0 6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.4 / 15.4 7.0 / 7.0
Walks 4.3 / 3.0 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
CHW
88-80-0 (52.4%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(57.7%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
CHW
97-69-2
O: 58.4% / U: 41.6% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
TB
CHW
TB
ML
48% 81-87
58% 95-68
56% 94-74
58% 95-68
ATS
59% 99-69
60% 97-66
55% 93-75
55% 90-73
TTL
58% 97-69-2
47% 73-81-9
51% 85-81-2
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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