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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

60-85  |  Road

0
FINAL
Thu, Sep 11 • 6:40 PM ET
loanDepot park
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MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

67-79  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
@
Michael Petersen
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Petersen

#49 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
Michael Petersen None-None 2.31 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.31
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
45%
📊
MARLINS
55%
NATIONALS --
MARLINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Washington)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

63.6%

Marlins Cover

36.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.7%

WSH By 3-4 runs

17.2%

MIA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

MIA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.86
WASHINGTON
3.47
MIAMI
Simulated Score
4
WASHINGTON
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nationals Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Marlins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nationals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
B
Sim Marlins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.3
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 31, 2026 MIA @ WSH 3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026 MIA @ WSH 6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026 MIA @ WSH 4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026 MIA @ WSH 2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026 WSH @ MIA 2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Miami MIA
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .249
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.744 ▲
OPS
.727
210 ▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +27.2% more
Washington: 3.5 vs Miami: 2.5
Errors (L5) +26.2% more
Washington: 1.1 vs Miami: 0.8
Home Runs (L5) +21.9% more
Washington: 1.5 vs Miami: 1.1
Home Runs (Season) +20.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.9 0
MIA Score 3.5 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 1.1 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 10.0 / 10.5 7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.5 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 6.3 9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 15.1 / 17.9 9.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.5 / 3.5 0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
WSH
MIA
WSH
ML
48% 78-84
57% 92-69
55% 88-72
54% 87-74
ATS
56% 91-71
58% 93-68
54% 86-74
57% 91-70
TTL
56% 88-69-5
50% 77-78-6
53% 82-73-5
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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