DETROIT
TIGERSDET
84-62 | Road
3
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
80-65 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Keider Montero
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Yarbrough
#33 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keider Montero | None-None | 4.60 | -- | 1.2 | 3 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | None-None | 3.82 | -- | 3.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.60
ERA
Ldr 3.82
--
WHIP
--
1.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
52%
YANKEES
48%
TIGERS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
15.0%
DET By 3-4 runs
19.1%
NYY By 1-2 runs
6.5%
NYY By 3-4 runs
2.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
8.47
DETROIT
New York
3.96
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Detroit
4
DETROIT
New York
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -4.5
D
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 12.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
DET @ NYY
6 - 2
Jun 30, 2026
DET @ NYY
9 - 3
Jun 29, 2026
DET @ NYY
7 - 3
Jun 24, 2026
NYY @ DET
4 - 2
Jun 23, 2026
NYY @ DET
4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.720
OPS
▲
1.041
181
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.9% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Hits (L5)
+41.7% more
Detroit: 10.3
vs
New York: 6.0
Total Bases (L5)
+39.7% more
Detroit: 17.7
vs
New York: 10.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+24.9% more
Detroit: 9.8
vs
New York: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
8.5
3
NYY Score
4.0
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.0 / 10.3
14.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.6
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 9.8
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
10.7 / 17.7
25.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.3 / 2.8
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
DET
NYY
DET
ML
47%
76-85
54%
86-73
52%
85-77
54%
87-73
ATS
59%
95-66
64%
101-58
53%
86-76
57%
91-69
TTL
53%
81-73-7
46%
69-81-9
53%
82-72-7
46%
69-81-10
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