Home / NFL Projections NFL / Buccaneers @ Texans TB @ HOU

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

1-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Mon, Sep 15 • 7:00 PM ET
NRG Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

0-1  |  Home

19
Key Game
Riley Dixon
KEY GAME

Riley Dixon

#9 | Punter
@
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
Player
Riley Dixon None-None
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
100%
📊
TEXANS
0%
BUCCANEERS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Houston)
BuccaneersTB (-3.5) 0 TexansHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

47.8%

Texans Cover

52.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

TB By 1-6 points

16.2%

TB By 7-13 points

14.8%

HOU By 1-6 points

16.7%

HOU By 7-13 points

16.0%

AI Model Projected Score
18.7
TAMPA BAY
19.48
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
23
TAMPA BAY
27
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.8
D
Sim Texans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 15, 2025 TB @ HOU 20 - 19
Nov 5, 2023 TB @ HOU 37 - 39
Dec 21, 2019 HOU @ TB 23 - 20
Sep 27, 2015 TB @ HOU 9 - 19
Nov 13, 2011 HOU @ TB 37 - 9
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +70.0% more
Houston: 1.5 vs Tampa Bay: 0.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.6 vs Houston: 0.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +13.8% more
Tampa Bay: 212.0 vs Houston: 182.7
First Downs (L5) +13.7% more
Tampa Bay: 20.5 vs Houston: 17.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 18.7 20
HOU Score 19.5 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.7 / 20.5 12.0 / 25.0
Net Passing Yards 182.7 / 212.0 182.0 / 191.0
Rushing Yards 132.0 / 135.4 84.0 / 169.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.6 0.22 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 314.7 / 347.3 266.0 / 360.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 5.9 5.8 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
TB
HOU
TB
ML
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
ATS
0% 0-4
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
100% 3-0-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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