Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chargers @ Raiders LAC @ LV

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

1-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Mon, Sep 15 • 10:00 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

1-0  |  Home

9
Key Game
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
@
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
Player
JK Scott None-None
AJ Cole None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
100%
📊
RAIDERS
0%
CHARGERS --
RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
LAS VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Las Vegas)
ChargersLAC (-3.5) 0 RaidersLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

43.3%

Raiders Cover

56.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LV -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LV)

LAC By 1-6 points

15.6%

LAC By 7-13 points

13.5%

LV By 1-6 points

16.9%

LV By 7-13 points

17.1%

AI Model Projected Score
22.42
LOS ANGELES
24.77
LAS VEGAS
Simulated Score
24
LOS ANGELES
27
LAS VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Raiders Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raiders Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raiders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.3
D
Sim Raiders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 LV @ LAC 26 - 14
Nov 30, 2025 LV @ LAC 14 - 31
Sep 15, 2025 LAC @ LV 20 - 9
Jan 5, 2025 LAC @ LV 34 - 20
Sep 8, 2024 LV @ LAC 10 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +21.9% more
Los Angeles: 93.3 vs Las Vegas: 72.9
Turnovers (L5) +9.3% more
Los Angeles: 1.1 vs Las Vegas: 1.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.4 vs Las Vegas: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +8.1% more
Los Angeles: 21.1 vs Las Vegas: 19.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 22.4 20
LV Score 24.8 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 21.1 15.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 263.7 / 267.7 150.0 / 236.0
Rushing Yards 72.9 / 93.3 68.0 / 81.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 336.6 / 361.0 218.0 / 317.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.1 3.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 5.8 3.4 / 5.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
LV Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LV
LAC
LV
LAC
ML
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
0% 0-3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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