Home / NFL Projections NFL / Browns @ Ravens CLE @ BAL

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

0-1  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Sep 14 • 1:00 PM ET
M&T Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

0-1  |  Home

41
Key Game
Tylan Wallace
KEY GAME

Tylan Wallace

#16 | Wide Receiver
@
Tyler Loop
KEY GAME

Tyler Loop

#33 | Place kicker
Player
Tylan Wallace None-None
Tyler Loop None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BROWNS
100%
📊
RAVENS
0%
BROWNS --
RAVENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.4 points (Baltimore)
BrownsCLE (-3.5) 0 RavensBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Browns Cover

29.8%

Ravens Cover

70.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BAL -7.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

CLE By 1-6 points

12.6%

CLE By 7-13 points

9.2%

BAL By 1-6 points

16.3%

BAL By 7-13 points

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
22.09
CLEVELAND
29.53
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
20
CLEVELAND
24
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ravens Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ravens Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ravens (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.4
D
Sim Ravens (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 51.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 16, 2025 BAL @ CLE 23 - 16
Sep 14, 2025 CLE @ BAL 17 - 41
Jan 4, 2025 CLE @ BAL 10 - 35
Oct 27, 2024 BAL @ CLE 24 - 29
Nov 12, 2023 CLE @ BAL 33 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +178.1% more
Baltimore: 225.2 vs Cleveland: 81.0
Yards Per Play (L5) +68.6% more
Baltimore: 7.4 vs Cleveland: 4.4
Total Yards (L5) +46.2% more
Baltimore: 430.6 vs Cleveland: 294.5
First Downs (L5) +21.1% more
Baltimore: 22.4 vs Cleveland: 18.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 22.1 17
BAL Score 29.5 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 18.5 14.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 205.4 / 213.6 197.0 / 208.0
Rushing Yards 225.2 / 81.0 45.0 / 115.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.39
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 430.6 / 294.5 242.0 / 323.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 2.4 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 7.4 / 4.4 4.6 / 4.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
BAL
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
BAL
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.6
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
CLE
BAL
CLE
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
100% 3-0-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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