Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bills @ Jets BUF @ NYJ

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

1-0  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sun, Sep 14 • 1:00 PM ET
MetLife Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

0-1  |  Home

10
Key Game
Dorian Williams
KEY GAME

Dorian Williams

#42 | Linebacker
@
Austin McNamara
KEY GAME

Austin McNamara

#14 | Punter
Player
Dorian Williams None-None
Austin McNamara None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
0%
📊
JETS
100%
BILLS --
JETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.1
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 points (Buffalo)
BillsBUF (-3.5) 0 JetsNYJ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bills Cover

61.4%

Jets Cover

38.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BUF -4.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BUF By 1-6 points

17.0%

BUF By 7-13 points

18.1%

NYJ By 1-6 points

14.7%

NYJ By 7-13 points

12.0%

AI Model Projected Score
25.03
BUFFALO
20.96
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
20
BUFFALO
27
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bills Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jets Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bills (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.1
D
Sim Jets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 NYJ @ BUF 8 - 35
Sep 14, 2025 BUF @ NYJ 30 - 10
Dec 29, 2024 NYJ @ BUF 14 - 40
Oct 14, 2024 BUF @ NYJ 23 - 20
Nov 19, 2023 NYJ @ BUF 6 - 32
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +15.4% more
Buffalo: 265.8 vs New York: 224.7
First Downs (L5) +12.8% more
Buffalo: 24.2 vs New York: 21.1
Total Yards (L5) +12.0% more
Buffalo: 404.0 vs New York: 355.3
Turnovers (L5) +125.0% more
New York: 1.3 vs Buffalo: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 25.0 30
NYJ Score 21.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.1 / 24.2 11.0 / 25.0
Net Passing Yards 224.7 / 265.8 54.0 / 179.0
Rushing Yards 130.6 / 138.2 100.0 / 224.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.36 / 0.64
Total Yards 355.3 / 404.0 154.0 / 403.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.9 / 5.8 3.3 / 5.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
NYJ
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
NYJ
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYJ
BUF
NYJ
BUF
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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