Home / NFL Projections NFL / Patriots @ Dolphins NE @ MIA

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

0-1  |  Road

33
FINAL
Sun, Sep 14 • 1:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

0-1  |  Home

27
Key Game
K.J. Britt
KEY GAME

K.J. Britt

#35 | Linebacker
@
Riley Patterson
KEY GAME

Riley Patterson

#47 | Place kicker
Player
K.J. Britt None-None
Riley Patterson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
100%
📊
DOLPHINS
0%
PATRIOTS --
DOLPHINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.2
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.2 points (Miami)
PatriotsNE (-3.5) 0 DolphinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

23.4%

Dolphins Cover

76.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIA -10.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

NE By 1-6 points

10.6%

NE By 7-13 points

7.2%

MIA By 1-6 points

15.2%

MIA By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
15.59
NEW ENGLAND
25.75
MIAMI
Simulated Score
27
NEW ENGLAND
20
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dolphins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dolphins (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.2
D
Sim Patriots (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 MIA @ NE 10 - 38
Sep 14, 2025 NE @ MIA 33 - 27
Nov 24, 2024 NE @ MIA 15 - 34
Oct 6, 2024 MIA @ NE 15 - 10
Oct 29, 2023 NE @ MIA 17 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +77.8% more
Miami: 2.2 vs New England: 1.3
Net Passing Yards (L5) +13.8% more
New England: 221.0 vs Miami: 190.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NE Score 15.6 33
MIA Score 25.8 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.8 / 18.3 16.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 190.4 / 221.0 297.0 / 211.0
Rushing Yards 95.4 / 89.6 61.0 / 122.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.4 / 0.58
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 285.8 / 310.6 358.0 / 333.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 5.0 6.9 / 6.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
NE
MIA
NE
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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