Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bears @ Lions CHI @ DET

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

0-1  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sun, Sep 14 • 1:00 PM ET
Ford Field
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

LIONSDET

0-1  |  Home

52
Key Game
Marcus Davenport
KEY GAME

Marcus Davenport

#52 | Defensive End
@
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
Player
Marcus Davenport None-None
Jack Fox None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
LIONS
0%
BEARS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
35.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Detroit)
BearsCHI (-3.5) 0 LionsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

42.5%

Lions Cover

57.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DET -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

CHI By 1-6 points

15.4%

CHI By 7-13 points

13.3%

DET By 1-6 points

16.9%

DET By 7-13 points

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
16.53
CHICAGO
19.16
DETROIT
Simulated Score
20
CHICAGO
27
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.6
D
Sim Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 35.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 DET @ CHI 19 - 16
Sep 14, 2025 CHI @ DET 21 - 52
Dec 22, 2024 DET @ CHI 34 - 17
Nov 28, 2024 CHI @ DET 20 - 23
Dec 10, 2023 DET @ CHI 13 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +50.5% more
Detroit: 263.5 vs Chicago: 175.1
Turnovers (L5) +48.4% more
Detroit: 1.9 vs Chicago: 1.3
Total Yards (L5) +42.3% more
Detroit: 389.4 vs Chicago: 273.6
First Downs (L5) +36.5% more
Detroit: 23.2 vs Chicago: 17.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHI Score 16.5 21
DET Score 19.2 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.2 / 17.0 25.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 263.5 / 175.1 334.0 / 205.0
Rushing Yards 125.9 / 98.5 177.0 / 134.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.4 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 389.4 / 273.6 511.0 / 339.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 4.5 8.8 / 5.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
DET
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
CHI
DET
CHI
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
33% 1-2-1
75% 3-1
67% 2-1-1
100% 4-0
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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