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JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

1-0  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sun, Sep 14 • 1:00 PM ET
Paycor Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

1-0  |  Home

31
Key Game
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
@
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
Player
Logan Cooke None-None
Ryan Rehkow None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
📊
BENGALS
0%
JAGUARS --
BENGALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Cincinnati)
JaguarsJAX (-3.5) 0 BengalsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

49.6%

Bengals Cover

50.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CIN -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

JAX By 1-6 points

16.4%

JAX By 7-13 points

15.3%

CIN By 1-6 points

16.5%

CIN By 7-13 points

15.5%

AI Model Projected Score
18.94
JACKSONVILLE
19.09
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
20
JACKSONVILLE
24
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bengals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bengals Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bengals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.1
D
Sim Bengals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 JAX @ CIN 22 - 17
Sep 14, 2025 JAX @ CIN 27 - 31
Dec 4, 2023 CIN @ JAX 34 - 31
Sep 30, 2021 JAX @ CIN 21 - 24
Oct 4, 2020 JAX @ CIN 25 - 33
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +12.0% more
Cincinnati: 223.8 vs Jacksonville: 199.8
First Downs (L5) +8.6% more
Cincinnati: 20.1 vs Jacksonville: 18.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +43.5% more
Jacksonville: 135.9 vs Cincinnati: 76.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +13.6% more
Jacksonville: 5.3 vs Cincinnati: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 18.9 27
CIN Score 19.1 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 18.5 24.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 223.8 / 199.8 302.0 / 261.0
Rushing Yards 76.9 / 135.9 48.0 / 139.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 300.7 / 335.7 350.0 / 400.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.1 3.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.6 / 5.3 5.4 / 5.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
JAX
CIN
JAX
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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