Home / NFL Projections NFL / Giants @ Cowboys NYG @ DAL

NEW YORK

GIANTSNYG

0-1  |  Road

37
FINAL
Sun, Sep 14 • 1:00 PM ET
AT&T Stadium
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

0-1  |  Home

40
Key Game
Gunner Olszewski
KEY GAME

Gunner Olszewski

#80 | Wide Receiver
@
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
Player
Gunner Olszewski None-None
Bryan Anger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
100%
📊
COWBOYS
0%
GIANTS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.5
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.5 points (Dallas)
GiantsNYG (-3.5) 0 CowboysDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

18.6%

Cowboys Cover

81.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DAL -12.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

NYG By 1-6 points

8.9%

NYG By 7-13 points

5.6%

DAL By 1-6 points

13.9%

DAL By 7-13 points

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
16.27
NEW YORK
28.75
DALLAS
Simulated Score
17
NEW YORK
28
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cowboys Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cowboys Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cowboys (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.5
D
Sim Cowboys (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 DAL @ NYG 20 - 28
Jan 4, 2026 DAL @ NYG 17 - 34
Sep 14, 2025 NYG @ DAL 37 - 40
Nov 28, 2024 NYG @ DAL 20 - 27
Sep 26, 2024 DAL @ NYG 20 - 15
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +51.0% more
Dallas: 124.2 vs New York: 82.3
Turnovers (L5) +43.0% more
Dallas: 1.2 vs New York: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +34.9% more
Dallas: 20.4 vs New York: 15.1
Total Yards (L5) +23.2% more
Dallas: 326.5 vs New York: 265.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYG Score 16.3 37
DAL Score 28.8 40
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.4 / 15.1 32.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 202.2 / 182.8 343.0 / 422.0
Rushing Yards 124.2 / 82.3 135.0 / 84.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.43 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 326.5 / 265.0 478.0 / 506.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 4.6 5.8 / 7.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYG Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +3.1
DAL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYG
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +3.1
DAL
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NYG
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.8
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
NYG
DAL
NYG
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
ATS
67% 2-1-1
100% 4-0
100% 3-0-1
100% 4-0
TTL
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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