Home / NFL Projections NFL / 49ers @ Saints SF @ NO

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

1-0  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sun, Sep 14 • 1:00 PM ET
Caesars Superdome
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

0-1  |  Home

21
Key Game
Eddy Pineiro
KEY GAME

Eddy Pineiro

#18 | Place kicker
@
Bryan Bresee
KEY GAME

Bryan Bresee

#90 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Eddy Pineiro None-None
Bryan Bresee None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
49ERS
0%
📊
SAINTS
100%
49ERS --
SAINTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
36.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.6
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.6 points (San Francisco)
49ersSF (-3.5) 0 SaintsNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

49ers Cover

75.4%

Saints Cover

24.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SF -9.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-6 points

15.4%

SF By 7-13 points

19.7%

NO By 1-6 points

11.0%

NO By 7-13 points

7.5%

AI Model Projected Score
22.88
SAN FRANCISCO
13.24
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
27
SAN FRANCISCO
20
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI 49ers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim 49ers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI 49ers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.6
D
Sim 49ers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 36.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 14, 2025 SF @ NO 26 - 21
Nov 27, 2022 NO @ SF 0 - 13
Nov 15, 2020 SF @ NO 13 - 27
Dec 8, 2019 SF @ NO 48 - 46
Nov 6, 2016 NO @ SF 41 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +67.5% more
San Francisco: 2.0 vs New Orleans: 0.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +28.5% more
San Francisco: 280.7 vs New Orleans: 200.6
Total Yards (L5) +25.6% more
San Francisco: 390.7 vs New Orleans: 290.8
First Downs (L5) +22.2% more
San Francisco: 23.2 vs New Orleans: 18.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 22.9 26
NO Score 13.2 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 23.2 21.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 200.6 / 280.7 186.0 / 267.0
Rushing Yards 90.2 / 110.0 121.0 / 77.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 290.8 / 390.7 307.0 / 344.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 2.0 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.7 / 5.9 4.6 / 5.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
NO
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
NO
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
SF
NO
SF
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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