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DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

1-0  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sun, Sep 14 • 4:05 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
View Odds Details →

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

1-0  |  Home

29
Key Game
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
@
Spencer Shrader
KEY GAME

Spencer Shrader

#3 | Place kicker
Player
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
Spencer Shrader None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
0%
📊
COLTS
100%
BRONCOS --
COLTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Denver)
BroncosDEN (-3.5) 0 ColtsIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

58.0%

Colts Cover

42.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DEN -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-6 points

16.9%

DEN By 7-13 points

17.3%

IND By 1-6 points

15.4%

IND By 7-13 points

13.1%

AI Model Projected Score
27.15
DENVER
24.34
INDIANAPOLIS
Simulated Score
20
DENVER
24
INDIANAPOLIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Broncos Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Colts Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Broncos (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.8
D
Sim Colts (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 51.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 14, 2025 DEN @ IND 28 - 29
Dec 15, 2024 IND @ DEN 13 - 31
Oct 6, 2022 IND @ DEN 12 - 9
Oct 27, 2019 DEN @ IND 13 - 15
Dec 14, 2017 DEN @ IND 25 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +34.8% more
Denver: 1.6 vs Indianapolis: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.5% more
Indianapolis: 168.4 vs Denver: 122.5
Total Yards (L5) +25.4% more
Indianapolis: 403.9 vs Denver: 322.1
First Downs (L5) +20.0% more
Indianapolis: 23.3 vs Denver: 19.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 27.2 28
IND Score 24.3 29
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.3 / 19.4 26.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 235.6 / 199.7 306.0 / 206.0
Rushing Yards 168.4 / 122.5 167.0 / 118.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.46 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 403.9 / 322.1 473.0 / 324.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.6 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 5.2 7.1 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
IND
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
IND Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
DEN
IND
DEN
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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