Home / NFL Projections NFL / Panthers @ Cardinals CAR @ ARI

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

0-1  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sun, Sep 14 • 4:05 PM ET
State Farm Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

1-0  |  Home

27
Key Game
Sam Martin
KEY GAME

Sam Martin

#6 | Punter
@
Blake Gillikin
KEY GAME

Blake Gillikin

#12 | Punter
Player
Sam Martin None-None
Blake Gillikin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
PANTHERS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
36.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Arizona)
PanthersCAR (-3.5) 0 CardinalsARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

30.9%

Cardinals Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARI -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

CAR By 1-6 points

12.9%

CAR By 7-13 points

9.6%

ARI By 1-6 points

16.5%

ARI By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
14.79
CAROLINA
21.79
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
20
CAROLINA
23
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 36.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 14, 2025 CAR @ ARI 22 - 27
Dec 22, 2024 ARI @ CAR 30 - 36
Oct 2, 2022 ARI @ CAR 26 - 16
Nov 14, 2021 CAR @ ARI 34 - 10
Oct 4, 2020 ARI @ CAR 21 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.6% more
Arizona: 146.8 vs Carolina: 119.8
First Downs (L5) +22.0% more
Arizona: 22.1 vs Carolina: 18.2
Total Yards (L5) +14.5% more
Arizona: 349.4 vs Carolina: 305.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +9.3% more
Arizona: 202.6 vs Carolina: 185.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAR Score 14.8 22
ARI Score 21.8 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.1 / 18.2 16.0 / 26.0
Net Passing Yards 202.6 / 185.5 211.0 / 303.0
Rushing Yards 146.8 / 119.8 82.0 / 49.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 349.4 / 305.2 293.0 / 352.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.4 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 5.1 6.1 / 4.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
ARI
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
ARI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
ARI
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
CAR
ARI
CAR
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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