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WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

1-0  |  Road

18
FINAL
Thu, Sep 11 • 8:15 PM ET
Lambeau Field
View Odds Details →

GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

1-0  |  Home

27
Key Game
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
@
Daniel Whelan
KEY GAME

Daniel Whelan

#19 | Punter
Player
Tress Way None-None
Daniel Whelan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COMMANDERS
100%
📊
PACKERS
0%
COMMANDERS --
PACKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
32.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
GREEN BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Green Bay)
CommandersWSH (-3.5) 0 PackersGB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commanders Cover

42.2%

Packers Cover

57.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GB -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GB)

WSH By 1-6 points

15.4%

WSH By 7-13 points

13.1%

GB By 1-6 points

16.9%

GB By 7-13 points

17.3%

AI Model Projected Score
14.61
WASHINGTON
17.37
GREEN BAY
Simulated Score
20
WASHINGTON
27
GREEN BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Packers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Packers Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Packers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.8
D
Sim Packers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 32.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 11, 2025 WSH @ GB 18 - 27
Oct 23, 2022 GB @ WSH 21 - 23
Oct 24, 2021 WSH @ GB 10 - 24
Dec 8, 2019 WSH @ GB 15 - 20
Sep 23, 2018 GB @ WSH 17 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +15.8% more
Green Bay: 1.4 vs Washington: 1.2
First Downs (L5) +27.6% more
Washington: 23.9 vs Green Bay: 17.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.3% more
Washington: 160.0 vs Green Bay: 116.4
Total Yards (L5) +21.6% more
Washington: 395.6 vs Green Bay: 310.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 14.6 18
GB Score 17.4 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.3 / 23.9 22.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 193.8 / 235.6 269.0 / 179.0
Rushing Yards 116.4 / 160.0 135.0 / 51.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 310.2 / 395.6 404.0 / 230.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 5.7 6.4 / 3.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
GB Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
GB
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
GB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GB
WSH
GB
WSH
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-3-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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