Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Alcorn St @ Mississippi St ALCN @ MSST

ALCORN STATE

ALCORN STALCN

0-2  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 6:00 PM ET
Davis Wade Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STMSST

2-0  |  Home

63
Key Game
Demetrion Duvall
KEY GAME

Demetrion Duvall

#12 | Punter
@
Ethan Pulliam
KEY GAME

Ethan Pulliam

#8 | Punter
Player
Demetrion Duvall None-None
Ethan Pulliam None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ALCORN ST
100%
📊
MISSISSIPPI ST
0%
ALCORN ST --
MISSISSIPPI ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Mississippi State)
Alcorn StALCN (-3.5) 0 Mississippi StMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Alcorn St Cover

0.2%

Mississippi St Cover

99.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MSST -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

ALCN By 1-6 points

0.1%

ALCN By 7-13 points

0.0%

MSST By 1-6 points

0.6%

MSST By 7-13 points

2.1%

AI Model Projected Score
6
ALCORN STATE
46
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
7
ALCORN STATE
45
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mississippi St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Mississippi St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mississippi St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
C
Sim Mississippi St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 ALCN @ MSST 0 - 63
Sep 7, 2013 ALCN @ MSST 7 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +120.8% more
Mississippi State: 374.1 vs Alcorn State: 169.4
First Downs (L5) +102.2% more
Mississippi State: 19.0 vs Alcorn State: 9.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.7% more
Mississippi State: 118.0 vs Alcorn State: 93.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +19.0% more
Mississippi State: 0.4 vs Alcorn State: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALCN Score 6.0 0
MSST Score 46.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.0 / 9.4 22.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 118.0 / 93.9 282.0 / 68.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.67 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 374.1 / 169.4 514.0 / 161.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.8 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALCN
--
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALCN
--
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ALCN
--
MSST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
ALCN
MSST
ALCN
ML
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
80% 4-1
100% 1-0
ATS
20% 1-4
100% 1-0
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
TTL
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
0% 0-5
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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