Home / MLB Projections MLB / Diamondbacks @ Giants ARI @ SF

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

72-74  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, Sep 10 • 3:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

74-71  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Eduardo Rodriguez
STARTING PITCHER

Eduardo Rodriguez

#57 | Starting Pitcher
@
JT Brubaker
STARTING PITCHER

JT Brubaker

#34 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Eduardo Rodriguez None-None 4.98 -- 6.1 6
JT Brubaker None-None 3.98 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.98 ERA Ldr 3.98
-- WHIP --
6.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 2.0
6 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
48%
📊
GIANTS
52%
DIAMONDBACKS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (San Francisco)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

36.2%

Giants Cover

63.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

ARI By 1-2 runs

15.2%

ARI By 3-4 runs

9.4%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SF By 3-4 runs

17.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5.08
ARIZONA
6.49
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
4
ARIZONA
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim Giants (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.6
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 ARI @ SF 7 - 1
Aug 28, 2026 ARI @ SF 10 - 6
Aug 27, 2026 ARI @ SF 1 - 6
Jul 1, 2026 SF @ ARI 6 - 4
Jun 30, 2026 SF @ ARI 2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720 ▲
OPS
.706
166
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +173.0% more
San Francisco: 2.3 vs Arizona: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +52.7% more
San Francisco: 17.0 vs Arizona: 11.1
Strikeouts (L5) +43.1% more
San Francisco: 9.0 vs Arizona: 6.3
Hits (L5) +9.4% more
San Francisco: 8.5 vs Arizona: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 5.1 5
SF Score 6.5 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.5 / 7.8 6.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 2.3 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 6.3 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 17.0 / 11.1 8.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.8 / 2.6 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
ARI
SF
ARI
ML
49% 79-81
54% 87-74
53% 85-75
54% 86-74
ATS
62% 100-60
57% 91-70
52% 83-77
56% 89-71
TTL
55% 82-68-10
52% 80-73-8
46% 68-81-11
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 2 hours, 30 minutes ago
Rich Rodriguez's Arizona Legacy: All-Star Team Rekindles Tucson …
newspub_live 14 hours, 26 minutes ago
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
si 1 day, 8 hours ago
Diamondbacks Honor Virahonda and Hagaman as Top Minor Leaguers A…
newschannel10 2 days, 2 hours ago
Shohei Ohtani's Slump Raises Concerns for Dodgers in NLDS
usatoday 2 days, 14 hours ago