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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

60-84  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Sep 10 • 6:40 PM ET
loanDepot park
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

66-79  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Clayton Beeter
STARTING PITCHER

Clayton Beeter

#39 | Relief Pitcher
@
Calvin Faucher
STARTING PITCHER

Calvin Faucher

#53 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Clayton Beeter None-None 4.66 -- 0.2 1
Calvin Faucher None-None 3.42 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.66 ERA Ldr 3.42
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
46%
📊
MARLINS
54%
NATIONALS --
MARLINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Washington)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

72.1%

Marlins Cover

27.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

18.9%

MIA By 1-2 runs

12.6%

MIA By 3-4 runs

7.0%

AI Model Projected Score
5.16
WASHINGTON
2.82
MIAMI
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nationals Loss
46% Win Prob
D
Sim Marlins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nationals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.3
B
Sim Marlins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 31, 2026 MIA @ WSH 3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026 MIA @ WSH 6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026 MIA @ WSH 4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026 MIA @ WSH 2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026 WSH @ MIA 2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Miami MIA
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .249
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.744 ▲
OPS
.727
210 ▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +44.7% more
Washington: 2.2 vs Miami: 1.2
Total Bases (L5) +30.2% more
Washington: 20.3 vs Miami: 14.2
Hits (L5) +21.1% more
Washington: 10.8 vs Miami: 8.5
Home Runs (Season) +20.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 5.2 3
MIA Score 2.8 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.6 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.5 / 10.8 13.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 2.2 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.0 / 5.9 13.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.2 / 20.3 17.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.8 / 4.2 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
WSH
MIA
WSH
ML
48% 78-84
57% 92-69
55% 88-72
54% 87-74
ATS
56% 91-71
58% 93-68
54% 86-74
57% 91-70
TTL
56% 88-69-5
50% 77-78-6
53% 82-73-5
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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