CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
82-63 | Road
3
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
65-80 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 2.04 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 3.56 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.04 Ldr
ERA
3.56
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
62%
BRAVES
38%
CUBS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.4%
CHC By 3-4 runs
15.6%
ATL By 1-2 runs
16.9%
ATL By 3-4 runs
11.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.17
CHICAGO
Atlanta
3.43
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
C
Sim
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.6
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
ATL @ CHC
4 - 8
Sep 15, 2026
ATL @ CHC
6 - 3
Sep 14, 2026
ATL @ CHC
3 - 7
May 14, 2026
CHC @ ATL
2 - 0
May 13, 2026
CHC @ ATL
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.374
OPS
▲
.757
0
Home Runs
▲
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+450.0% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+313.0% more
Atlanta: 3.9
vs
Chicago: 0.8
OPS (Season)
+38.3%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Strikeouts (L5)
+31.4% more
Atlanta: 9.7
vs
Chicago: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
4.2
3
ATL Score
3.4
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.0 / 6.5
7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 7.4
13.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
9.9 / 9.7
10.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.9 / 0.8
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CHC
ATL
CHC
ML
46%
77-90
58%
93-68
54%
90-78
51%
82-79
ATS
57%
96-71
61%
97-63-1
52%
87-81
47%
75-85-1
TTL
53%
83-73-11
52%
81-74-6
49%
76-80-11
46%
72-83-6
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