TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
72-72 | Road
5
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
55-90 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Taylor
#31 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 3.67 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Grant Taylor | None-None | 5.68 | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.67 Ldr
ERA
5.68
--
WHIP
--
0.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
62%
WHITE SOX
38%
RAYS
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
61%
Under 0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
16.2%
CHW By 1-2 runs
16.4%
CHW By 3-4 runs
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
5.21
TAMPA BAY
Chicago
4.24
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
White Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
White Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
CHW @ TB
9 - 1
Aug 1, 2026
CHW @ TB
0 - 1
Jul 31, 2026
CHW @ TB
6 - 1
Apr 16, 2026
TB @ CHW
5 - 3
Apr 15, 2026
TB @ CHW
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Chicago
CHW
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.728
OPS
▲
.826
169
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.4% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+32.8% more
Tampa Bay: 1.2
vs
Chicago: 0.8
Home Runs (L5)
+29.6% more
Tampa Bay: 1.6
vs
Chicago: 1.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+11.3% more
Tampa Bay: 11.0
vs
Chicago: 9.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
5.2
5
CHW Score
4.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 8.0
8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.6
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.8 / 11.0
12.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 14.1
15.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.4
7.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
CHW
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
TB
CHW
TB
ML
49%
81-86
58%
95-68
56%
94-73
58%
95-68
ATS
59%
99-68
60%
97-66
56%
93-74
55%
90-73
TTL
58%
96-69-2
47%
73-81-9
51%
84-81-2
51%
78-75-10
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