CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
73-72 | Road
2
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
79-66 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Abbott
#41 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yuki Matsui
#1 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott | None-None | 2.79 | -- | 8.0 | 6 |
| Yuki Matsui | None-None | 4.31 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.79 Ldr
ERA
4.31
--
WHIP
--
8.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
46%
PADRES
54%
REDS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.2%
CIN By 3-4 runs
15.1%
SD By 1-2 runs
17.4%
SD By 3-4 runs
12.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.6
CINCINNATI
San Diego
4.07
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim
Reds (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
SD @ CIN
3 - 7
Sep 1, 2026
SD @ CIN
3 - 4
Aug 31, 2026
SD @ CIN
5 - 0
Jun 10, 2026
CIN @ SD
4 - 5
Jun 9, 2026
CIN @ SD
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.699
OPS
▲
.925
213
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.1% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+54.3% more
Cincinnati: 1.9
vs
San Diego: 0.9
Walks (L5)
+10.8% more
Cincinnati: 2.7
vs
San Diego: 2.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+46.0% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.6
2
SD Score
4.1
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.5 / 6.4
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 9.0
10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 13.0
10.0 / 7.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.7
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
CIN
SD
CIN
ML
51%
85-83
55%
88-71
51%
85-82
49%
79-81
ATS
54%
91-77
54%
86-73
55%
92-75
50%
80-80
TTL
51%
82-80-6
53%
81-73-5
54%
86-74-6
54%
83-72-5
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