ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
72-74 | Road
2
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
77-68 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Riley O'Brien
#61 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emerson Hancock
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley O'Brien | None-None | 1.52 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
| Emerson Hancock | None-None | 5.29 | -- | 2.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.52 Ldr
ERA
5.29
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
46%
MARINERS
54%
CARDINALS
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
STL By 1-2 runs
12.5%
STL By 3-4 runs
6.9%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.3%
SEA By 3-4 runs
19.0%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.58
ST. LOUIS
Seattle
5.93
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.3
D
Sim
Mariners (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 26, 2026
SEA @ STL
3 - 2
Apr 25, 2026
SEA @ STL
11 - 9
Apr 24, 2026
SEA @ STL
3 - 2
Sep 10, 2025
STL @ SEA
2 - 4
Sep 9, 2025
STL @ SEA
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.379
.691
OPS
▲
.693
167
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+168.0% more
Seattle: 2.1
vs
St. Louis: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+91.8% more
Seattle: 17.6
vs
St. Louis: 9.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+51.2% more
Seattle: 9.4
vs
St. Louis: 6.2
Hits (L5)
+40.2% more
Seattle: 9.5
vs
St. Louis: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.6
2
SEA Score
5.9
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.5 / 6.8
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 6.2
14.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
17.6 / 9.2
14.0 / 12.0
Walks
1.7 / 3.5
1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
STL
SEA
STL
ML
50%
81-81
53%
85-74
52%
85-77
52%
84-77
ATS
60%
98-64
56%
89-70
59%
95-67
53%
85-76
TTL
56%
85-67-10
46%
68-81-10
53%
81-71-10
50%
76-75-10
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