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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

40-105  |  Road

0
FINAL
Wed, Sep 10 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

81-64  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Freeland
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Freeland

#21 | Starting Pitcher
@
Alex Vesia
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Vesia

#51 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Freeland None-None 4.97 -- 5.2 5
Alex Vesia None-None 2.67 -- 0.2 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.97 ERA Ldr 2.67
-- WHIP --
5.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
23%
📊
DODGERS
77%
ROCKIES --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Los Angeles)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

28.3%

Dodgers Cover

71.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

COL By 1-2 runs

12.7%

COL By 3-4 runs

7.1%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.4%

LAD By 3-4 runs

18.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3.12
COLORADO
5.42
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
COLORADO
7
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Win
77% Win Prob
B
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.3
D
Sim Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 19, 2026 LAD @ COL 6 - 4
Aug 18, 2026 LAD @ COL 7 - 6
Aug 17, 2026 LAD @ COL 11 - 5
Jul 8, 2026 COL @ LAD 3 - 4
Jul 7, 2026 COL @ LAD 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.64
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.254
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.739
OPS
▲ .762
180
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +121.0% more
Los Angeles: 2.0 vs Colorado: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5) +76.9% more
Los Angeles: 11.8 vs Colorado: 6.7
Total Bases (L5) +60.8% more
Los Angeles: 15.5 vs Colorado: 9.7
Hits (L5) +26.2% more
Los Angeles: 7.7 vs Colorado: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.1 0
LAD Score 5.4 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.0 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.7 / 6.1 14.0 / 2.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 0.8 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 11.8 / 6.7 17.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 15.5 / 9.7 22.0 / 2.0
Walks 2.1 / 2.9 6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
4%MONEY96%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
COL
LAD
COL
ML
56% 92-73
60% 97-64
48% 79-87
55% 88-73
ATS
59% 98-67
60% 97-64
43% 72-94
52% 83-78
TTL
48% 77-82-6
60% 93-62-6
44% 70-90-6
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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