PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
64-80 | Road
2
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
66-77 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yennier Cano
#78 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraft | None-None | 2.47 | -- | 3.0 | 4 |
| Yennier Cano | None-None | 4.99 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.47 Ldr
ERA
4.99
--
WHIP
--
3.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
48%
ORIOLES
52%
PIRATES
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
39%
Under 0
61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
PIT By 1-2 runs
17.5%
PIT By 3-4 runs
12.1%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.1%
BAL By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.95
PITTSBURGH
Baltimore
4.44
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
BAL @ PIT
2 - 8
Apr 4, 2026
BAL @ PIT
2 - 3
Apr 3, 2026
BAL @ PIT
4 - 5
Sep 11, 2025
PIT @ BAL
2 - 3
Sep 10, 2025
PIT @ BAL
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.734
▲
OPS
.711
186
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+77.0% more
Baltimore: 1.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.2
Errors (L5)
+44.0% more
Baltimore: 1.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+28.7% more
Baltimore: 11.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.7
Hits (L5)
+12.7% more
Baltimore: 6.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.0
2
BAL Score
4.4
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 6.1
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 8.8
10.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
11.2 / 8.7
9.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.3 / 4.1
5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
PIT
BAL
PIT
ML
53%
83-73
52%
82-77
57%
90-69
52%
85-78
ATS
61%
95-60-1
54%
86-73
57%
90-68-1
50%
81-82
TTL
54%
81-70-5
47%
72-81-6
51%
78-75-6
50%
79-78-6
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