WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
59-84 | Road
7
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
66-78 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
PJ Poulin
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Javier Sanoja
#8 | Third Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PJ Poulin | None-None | 1.53 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Javier Sanoja | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.53
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
1
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
45%
MARLINS
55%
NATIONALS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.5%
WSH By 3-4 runs
18.7%
MIA By 1-2 runs
13.1%
MIA By 3-4 runs
7.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4.89
WASHINGTON
Miami
2.72
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Miami
6
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nationals
Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nationals (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
B
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 31, 2026
MIA @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
MIA @ WSH
6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026
MIA @ WSH
4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026
MIA @ WSH
2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026
WSH @ MIA
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.744
▲
OPS
.727
210
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+42.1% more
Washington: 2.3
vs
Miami: 1.3
Total Bases (L5)
+31.2% more
Washington: 21.4
vs
Miami: 14.8
Walks (L5)
+30.7% more
Washington: 5.3
vs
Miami: 3.7
Hits (L5)
+21.7% more
Washington: 11.2
vs
Miami: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.9
7
MIA Score
2.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.8 / 11.2
8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 2.3
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 6.9
4.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
14.8 / 21.4
13.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.7 / 5.3
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
WSH
MIA
WSH
ML
48%
78-84
57%
92-69
55%
88-72
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
91-71
58%
93-68
54%
86-74
57%
91-70
TTL
56%
88-69-5
50%
77-78-6
53%
82-73-5
42%
65-90-6
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