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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

71-72  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Sep 9 • 7:40 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

55-89  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Bryan Baker
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Baker

#47 | Relief Pitcher
@
Chase Meidroth
STARTING PITCHER

Chase Meidroth

#10 | Second Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan Baker None-None 3.69 -- 1.0 1
Chase Meidroth None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.69 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
61%
📊
WHITE SOX
39%
RAYS --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Tampa Bay)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

65.4%

White Sox Cover

34.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TB By 3-4 runs

17.6%

CHW By 1-2 runs

14.8%

CHW By 3-4 runs

9.0%

AI Model Projected Score
5.37
TAMPA BAY
3.79
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rays Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim White Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rays (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim White Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 CHW @ TB 9 - 1
Aug 1, 2026 CHW @ TB 0 - 1
Jul 31, 2026 CHW @ TB 6 - 1
Apr 16, 2026 TB @ CHW 5 - 3
Apr 15, 2026 TB @ CHW 8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.54
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.728
OPS
▲ .826
169 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.4% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5) +8.6% more
Tampa Bay: 10.0 vs Chicago: 9.2
Errors (L5) +42.0% more
Chicago: 1.2 vs Tampa Bay: 0.8
Runs per Game (Season) +32.2% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Tampa Bay: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 5.4 5
CHW Score 3.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 0.8 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 9.2 / 8.5 7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.9 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 10.0 11.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 14.6 / 12.7 13.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.8 / 3.7 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
CHW
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
TB
CHW
TB
ML
49% 81-86
58% 95-68
56% 94-73
58% 95-68
ATS
59% 99-68
60% 97-66
56% 93-74
55% 90-73
TTL
58% 96-69-2
47% 73-81-9
51% 84-81-2
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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