Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Mariners STL @ SEA

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

72-73  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Sep 9 • 9:40 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

76-68  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Leahy
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Leahy

#62 | Starting Pitcher
@
Andres Munoz
STARTING PITCHER

Andres Munoz

#75 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Leahy None-None 2.86 -- 2.0 3
Andres Munoz None-None 1.63 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.86 ERA Ldr 1.63
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
47%
📊
MARINERS
53%
CARDINALS --
MARINERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Seattle)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 MarinersSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

37.6%

Mariners Cover

62.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

STL By 1-2 runs

15.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

9.9%

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SEA By 3-4 runs

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.38
ST. LOUIS
5.64
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mariners Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Mariners Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mariners (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
C
Sim Mariners (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 26, 2026 SEA @ STL 3 - 2
Apr 25, 2026 SEA @ STL 11 - 9
Apr 24, 2026 SEA @ STL 3 - 2
Sep 10, 2025 STL @ SEA 2 - 4
Sep 9, 2025 STL @ SEA 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .314
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .379
.691
OPS
▲ .693
167
Home Runs
▲ 182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +151.0% more
Seattle: 2.2 vs St. Louis: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +122.8% more
Seattle: 18.4 vs St. Louis: 8.3
Hits (L5) +72.5% more
Seattle: 9.7 vs St. Louis: 5.6
Strikeouts (L5) +40.6% more
Seattle: 9.6 vs St. Louis: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 4.4 3
SEA Score 5.6 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.7 / 5.6 9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 2.2 / 0.7 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 6.9 9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 18.4 / 8.3 16.0 / 11.0
Walks 1.6 / 2.8 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
STL
SEA
STL
ML
50% 81-81
53% 85-74
52% 85-77
52% 84-77
ATS
60% 98-64
56% 89-70
59% 95-67
53% 85-76
TTL
56% 85-67-10
46% 68-81-10
53% 81-71-10
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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