Home / MLB Projections MLB / Reds @ Padres CIN @ SD

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

72-72  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Sep 9 • 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

79-65  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
@
Mason Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Miller

#22 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Emilio Pagan None-None 3.26 -- 1.0 1
Mason Miller None-None 3.02 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
3.26 ERA Ldr 3.02
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
45%
📊
PADRES
55%
REDS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (San Diego)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

47.7%

Padres Cover

52.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

CIN By 1-2 runs

18.0%

CIN By 3-4 runs

12.9%

SD By 1-2 runs

18.8%

SD By 3-4 runs

14.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.21
CINCINNATI
4.44
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
4
CINCINNATI
6
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
C
Sim Padres (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.7
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 SD @ CIN 3 - 7
Sep 1, 2026 SD @ CIN 3 - 4
Aug 31, 2026 SD @ CIN 5 - 0
Jun 10, 2026 CIN @ SD 4 - 5
Jun 9, 2026 CIN @ SD 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.699
OPS
▲ .925
213 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +46.0% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Hits (L5) +35.3% more
San Diego: 9.7 vs Cincinnati: 7.2
Total Bases (L5) +30.4% more
San Diego: 16.3 vs Cincinnati: 12.5
OPS (Season) +22.6%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 4.2 4
SD Score 4.4 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.7 / 7.2 3.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.3 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 10.4 / 9.4 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 16.3 / 12.5 6.0 / 14.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.0 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
CIN
SD
CIN
ML
51% 85-83
55% 88-71
51% 85-82
49% 79-81
ATS
54% 91-77
54% 86-73
55% 92-75
50% 80-80
TTL
51% 82-80-6
53% 81-73-5
54% 86-74-6
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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