Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Buffalo @ Kent State BUFF @ KENT

BUFFALO

BUFFALOBUFF

1-1  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 12:00 PM ET
Dix Stadium
View Odds Details →

KENT STATE

KENT STATEKENT

1-1  |  Home

28
Key Game
John Keough
KEY GAME

John Keough

#7 | Safety
@
Da'Realyst Clark
KEY GAME

Da'Realyst Clark

#8 | Wide Receiver
Player
John Keough None-None
Da'Realyst Clark None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUFFALO
0%
📊
KENT STATE
100%
BUFFALO --
KENT STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (Buffalo)
BuffaloBUFF (-3.5) 0 Kent StateKENT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buffalo Cover

99.2%

Kent State Cover

0.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BUFF -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUFF)

BUFF By 1-6 points

1.6%

BUFF By 7-13 points

4.7%

KENT By 1-6 points

0.5%

KENT By 7-13 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
41
BUFFALO
7
KENT STATE
Simulated Score
20
BUFFALO
27
KENT STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Buffalo Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Kent State Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Buffalo (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -34.0
C
Sim Kent State (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 BUFF @ KENT 31 - 28
Nov 26, 2024 KENT @ BUFF 7 - 43
Oct 21, 2023 BUFF @ KENT 24 - 6
Nov 26, 2022 KENT @ BUFF 30 - 27
Oct 9, 2021 BUFF @ KENT 38 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +63.9% more
Buffalo: 223.7 vs Kent State: 80.8
First Downs (L5) +46.0% more
Buffalo: 21.8 vs Kent State: 11.8
Total Yards (L5) +35.6% more
Buffalo: 378.4 vs Kent State: 243.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +22.0% more
Buffalo: 0.4 vs Kent State: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUFF Score 41.0 31
KENT Score 7.0 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 11.8 / 21.8 20.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 80.8 / 223.7 144.0 / 139.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 243.6 / 378.4 423.0 / 457.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.3 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
91%MONEY9%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUFF
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
KENT
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUFF
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
KENT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BUFF
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
KENT
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENT
BUFF
KENT
BUFF
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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