Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Memphis @ Troy MEM @ TROY

MEMPHIS

MEMPHISMEM

2-0  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 12:00 PM ET
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
View Odds Details →

TROY

TROYTROY

1-1  |  Home

7
Key Game
Beni Mwamba
KEY GAME

Beni Mwamba

#12 | Safety
@
Evan Crenshaw
KEY GAME

Evan Crenshaw

#28 | Punter
Player
Beni Mwamba None-None
Evan Crenshaw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MEMPHIS
100%
📊
TROY
0%
MEMPHIS --
TROY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
83.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Troy)
MemphisMEM (-3.5) 0 TroyTROY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Memphis Cover

47.2%

Troy Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TROY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)

MEM By 1-6 points

16.1%

MEM By 7-13 points

14.6%

TROY By 1-6 points

16.7%

TROY By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
41
MEMPHIS
42
TROY
Simulated Score
24
MEMPHIS
28
TROY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Troy Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Troy Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Troy (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Sim Troy (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 83.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 MEM @ TROY 28 - 7
Sep 7, 2024 TROY @ MEM 17 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +133.0% more
Troy: 1.7 vs Memphis: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.7% more
Memphis: 207.0 vs Troy: 174.5
Total Yards (L5) +12.9% more
Memphis: 436.6 vs Troy: 380.3
First Downs (L5) +8.4% more
Memphis: 22.7 vs Troy: 20.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 41.0 28
TROY Score 42.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.7 / 22.7 12.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 174.5 / 207.0 40.0 / 217.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.27 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 380.3 / 436.6 112.0 / 430.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
TROY
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
TROY
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
TROY
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
MEM
TROY
MEM
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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